Publications | Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)

Chen Y., A. Wang, X. Ma, 2025: Observed evidence and physical mechanism of preceding soil temperature variability affecting sub‐seasonal air temperature in summer over Chinese mainland. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130, e2024JD043071. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD043071

Kong X. H., A. Wang, Y. Xue, N. Wei, H. Zhang, Q. Hu, J. He, X. Bi, Y. Chen, 2025: Predicting on the extreme precipitation in East and Southeast Asia during summer 2022 from the antecedent soil temperature anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau. J. Climate. 38, 2109-2128, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0500.1.

Li, Q., Y. Xue, X. Konga, W. K-M Lau, A. Wang, Q.P. Li, Z. Cao, H. Nayak, G. Xu, W. Guo, Ratko V., 2025: Excessive Tibetan Plateau Spring Warming Found to Cause Catastrophic June 2024 Heavy Rainfall in China. Science Bulletin, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2025.01.011

Lin C., Kun Yang, Deliang Chen, Siyu Yue, Xu Zhou, Yonghui Lei, Jinmei Pan, Xi Cao, Yongkang Xue, and Jiancheng Shi, 2025: Enduring local impact of springtime snow cover over the Third Pole, npj climate and atmospheric science, 8:384. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01264-w.

Nayak, H. P., Y. Xue, Q. Li, D. J. Neelin, I. Diallo, Z. Cao, R. Vasic, 2025: Effect of Rocky Mountain and Tibetan Plateau Spring Land Temperature on N. American and East Asian Summer Precipitation Anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 130. e2024JD042318. DOI: 10.1029/2024JD042318

Takaya, Y., Ganeshi, N. G., Kosaka, Y., Liang, X. S., & Sato, T., 2025: Influence of soil moisture on surface air temperature in monsoons. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115760. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115760

Wang A., Y. Chen, M. Li, Y. Gao, X. Ma, 2025: A Review of Soil Moisture Data in China: Definitions, Sources, and Applications in Hydrometeorology Research. BAMS, 106, E1108–E1129. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0197.1

Wang, W., M. Yu Y. Xue, J. Tang, W. Liu, G. Wang, J. Zhang, and H. Wu. 2025: Responses of June Precipitation in Eastern China to Late Spring Soil Temperature Anomaly over the Qinghai–Xizang Plateau: Results from a Regional Climate Model. J. Meteor. Res., 39(5), 1247–1263, doi: 10.1007/s13351-025-5010-8

Xue, Y. and A. Boone, 2025: Excessive Tibetan Plateau Spring Warming Found to Cause Catastrophic June 2024 Precipitation in Southern China and Bangladesh – A Typical LS4P Scenario. GEWEX Quarterly, Vol. 35, No. 1. 8-10. International GEWEX Project Office, Silver Spring, MD

Fan, Y., J. Yang, Q. Bao, T. Ma, G. Wu, Y. Xue, C. Shi, Y. Liu, and X. Qi, 2024: How does the Tibetan plateau land thermal initial condition influence the subseasonal prediction of 2020 record‐breaking Mei‐yu rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129, e2024JD041723. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041723

Ardilouze C. and A. A. Boone, 2024: Impact of initializing the soil with a thermally and hydrologically balanced state on subseasonal predictability. Climate Dynamics, 62, 2629-2644, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07024-x

Qin Y., Q. Tang, Y. Xue, Y. Liu, and Y. Lin, 2024: Improved subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation prediction of climate models with nudging approach for better initialization of Tibetan Plateau‑Rocky Mountain Circumglobal wave train and land surface conditions. Climate Dynamics, 62, 2645-2659, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07082-1

Takahashi, H. G., S. Sugimoto, T. Sato, 2024: Impact of spring land‑surface conditions over the Tibetan Plateau on the early summer Asian monsoon using an AGCM large ensemble. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07077-y

Tang J, Y Xue, M. Long, M. Ma, X‑Z Liang, S. Sugimoto, K. Yang, Z. Ji, J. Hong, J. Kim, H. Xu, X. Zhou, T. Sato, H G. Takahashi, S. Wang, G. Wang, S. C. Chou, W. Guo, M. Yu, X. Pa, 2023: Regional climate model intercomparison over the Tibetan Plateau in the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I. Climate Dynamics, 62, 2837-2858. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06992-4

Takaya, Y., K. K. Komatsu, N. G. Ganeshi, T. Toyoda, H. Hasumi, 2024: A sub-monthly timescale causality between snow cover and surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere inferred by Liang–Kleeman information flow analysis. Climate Dynamics, 62, 2735-2754, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07112-6

Xue Y., I. Diallo, A. A. Boone, Y. Zhang, X. Zeng, W. K.M. Lau, J. D. Neelin, T. Yao , Q. Tang , T. Sato , M.-S. Koo, F. Vitart, C. Ardilouze, S. K. Saha, S. Materia, Z. Lin, Y. Takaya, J. Yang, T. Nakamura, X. Qi, Y. Qin, P. Nobre, R. Senan, H. Wang, H. Zhang, M. Zhao, H. P. Nayak, Y. Pan, X. Pan, J. Feng, C. Shi, S. Xie, M. A. Brunke, Q. Bao, M. J. Bottino, T. Fan, S. Hong, Y. Lin, D. Peano, Y. Zhan, C. R. Mechoso, X. Ren, G. Balsamo, S. C. Chou, P. de Rosnay, P. J. van Oevelen, D. Klocke, M. Ek, X. Li, W. Guo, Y. Zhu, J. Tang, X.-Z. Liang, Y. Qian, P. Zhao, 2024: Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: The GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment. Climate Dynamics. 62, 2603-2628, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5

Xue, Y. and W. K-M Lau, 2024: Preface: Subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability of extreme precipitation and land forcing. Climate Dynamics. 62, 2599-2600. DOI. 10.1007/s00382-024-07203-4

Zhang H., X.-Z. Liang, Y. Dai, L. Song, Q. Li, F. Wang, and S. Zhang, 2024: CWRF Downscaling with improved Land Surface Initialization Enhances Spring–Summer Seasonal Climate Prediction Skill in China. J. Climate, 37, 4437-4459. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0565.1

Zhang, Y., Y. Pan, Y. Xue, I. Diallo, X. Zeng, S. Li, J. D Neelin, W. K.M. Lau, A. A. Boone, F Vitart., T. Yao, Q. Tang, T. Sato, M.-S. Koo, C. Ardilouze, S. K. Saha, J. Yang, S. Materia, Z. Lin, X. Qi, Y. Qin, T. Nakamura, P. Nobre, D. Peano, R. Senan, Y. Takaya, H. Wang, H. Zhang, Y. Zhan, M. Zhao , C. R. Mechoso, Q. Bao , M. J. Bottino, S. Hong, Y. Lin, S. Xie, X. Pan, H. P. Nayak, S. C. Chou, W. Guo, 2024: Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface Temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau —- The GEWEX/LS4P First Phase Experiment. Climate Dynamics. 62, 2907-, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07210-5

Komatsu, K.K., Y. Takaya, T. Toyoda, and H. Hasumi, 2023: A submonthly scale causal relation between snow cover and surface air temperature over the autumnal Eurasian continent. J. Climate.

Xue Y., A. Boone, T. Yao, I. Diallo, W. K.M. Lau, H. Nayak, and the LS4P team, 2023: Hot Spots of the Remote Effect of Tibetan Plateau Spring Temperature in Global S2S Prediction–GEWEX/LS4P Phase I Highlights and Phase II Initiation. GEWEX News, Vol. 33, No. 1, 7-9. International GEWEX Project Office, Silver Spring, MD

Diallo, I., Y. Xue, Q. Chen, X. Ren, W. Guo, 2022: Effects of Spring Tibetan Plateau Land Temperature Anomalies on Early Summer Floods/Droughts over the monsoon regions of South East Asia. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06053-8

Qi, X., Yang, J., Xue, Y., Bao, Q., Wu, G., & Ji, D., 2022: Subseasonal warming of surface soil enhances precipitation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau in early summer. J. of Geophy. Res.: Atmos, 127, e2022JD037250.

Qiu, Y., J. Feng, J. Wang, Y. Xue, Z. Xu, 2021: Memory of land surface and subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) initial anomalies over Tibetan Plateau in different land models. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05937-z

Saha, S. K., Y. Xue, S. Krishnakumar, I. D.iallo, Y. Shivamurthy, T. Nakamura, Q. Tang, and H. Chaudhari, 2023: A Dominant Mode in the First Phase of the Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Role of Antecedent Remote Land Surface Temperature, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06709-7

Sugimoto, S., Y. Xue, T. Sato, and H. G. Takahashi, 2022: Influence of convective processes on Weather Research and Forecasting model precipitation biases over East Asia. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06587-5

Xu, H, X-Z Liang, Y. Xue: 2022: Regional climate modeling to understand Tibetan heating remote impacts on East China precipitation. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06266-5

Xue Y., I. Diallo, A. A. Boone, T. Yao , Y. Zhang, X. Zeng, J. D. Neelin, W. K.M. Lau , Y. Pan, Y. Liu1, X. Pan, Q. Tang, P. J. van Oevelen, T. Sato, M.-S. Koo, S. Materia, C. Shi, J. Yang, C. Ardilouze, Z. Lin, Xin Qi, T. Nakamura, S. K. Saha, R. Senan, Y. Takaya, H. Wang, H. Zhang, M. Zhao, H. P. Nayak, Q. Chen, J. Feng, M. A. Brunke, T. Fan, S. Hong, P. Nobre, D. Peano, Y. Qin, F. Vitart, S. Xie, Y. Zhan, D. Klocke, R. Leung, X. Li, M. Ek, W. Guo, G. Balsamo, Q. Bao, S. C. Chou, P. de Rosnay, Y. Lin, Y. Zhu, Y. Qian, P. Zhao, J. Tang, X.-Z. Liang, J. Hong, D. Ji, Z. Ji, Y. Qiu, S. Sugimoto, W. Wang, K. Yang, M. Yu, 2022: Spring Land Temperature in Tibetan Plateau and Global-Scale Summer Precipitation – Initialization and Improved Prediction. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. 103, 12, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0270.1, E2756-E2767

Yang, Z., Yang, Zhang, J., Liu, Y., Li K., 2022: The substantial role of May soil temperature over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China. Climate Dynamics. DOI : 10.1007/s00382-022-06360-8

Xue, Y., Yao, T., Boone, A. A., Diallo, I., Liu, Y., Zeng, X., Lau, W. K.-M., Sugimoto, S., Tang, Q., Pan, X., van Oevelen, P. J., Klocke, D., Koo, M.-S., Lin, Z., Takaya, Y., Sato, T., Ardilouze, C., Saha, S. K., Zhao, M., Liang, X.-Z., Vitart, F., Li, X., Zhao, P., Neelin, D., Guo, W., Yu, M., Qian, Y., Shen, S. S. P., Zhang, Y., Yang, K., Leung, R., Yang, J., Qiu, Y., Brunke, M. A., Chou, S. C., Ek, M., Fan, T., Guan, H., Lin, H., Liang, S., Materia, S., Nakamura, T., Qi, X., Senan, R., Shi, C., Wang, H., Wei, H., Xie, S., Xu, H., Zhang, H., Zhan, Y., Li, W., Shi, X., Nobre, P., Qin, Y., Dozier, J., Ferguson, C. R., Balsamo, G., Bao, Q., Feng, J., Hong, J., Hong, S., Huang, H., Ji, D., Ji, Z., Kang, S., Lin, Y., Liu, W., Muncaster, R., Pan, Y., Peano, D., de Rosnay, P., Takahashi, H. G., Tang, J., Wang, G., Wang, S., Wang, W., Zhou, X., and Zhu, Y., 2021: Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I), 2021: Organization and Experimental design, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494.

Liu Y., Y. Xue, Q. Li, D. Lettenmaier, and P. Zhao, 2020: Investigation of the variability of near-surface temperature anomaly and its causes over the Tibetan Plateau. J. Geophy. Res: Atmos. 125, e2020JD032800.

Zhang, Yang & Zou, Tao & Xue, Yongkang. (2019). An Arctic-Tibetan Connection on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scale. Geophysical Research Letters. 10.1029/2018GL081476.

Diallo, Ismaila & Xue, Yongkang & Li, Qian & De Sales, Fernando & Li, Wei. (2019). Dynamical downscaling the impact of spring Western US land surface temperature on the 2015 flood extremes at the Southern Great Plains: effect of domain choice, dynamic cores and land surface parameterization. Climate Dynamics. 10.1007/s00382-019-04630-6.

Xue, Y., W. K-M Lau, T. Yao, and A. Boone, 2019: Remote Effects of Tibetan Plateau Spring Land Surface Temperature on Global Summer Precipitation and its S2S Prediction: Second Workshop on LS4P and TPEMIP. GEWEX News, Vol. 29, No. 4, 1, 8-10. International GEWEX Project Office, Silver Spring, MD.

Pinker R., Ma, Y., et al., 2019: Towards a Unified and Coherent Land Surface Temperature Earth System Data Record from Geostationary Satellites. Remote Sens, 11, 1399; doi:10.3390/rs11121399

Lau, W. K. M., J. Sang, K. M. Kim, M. K. Kim, R. Koster and T. J. Yasunari, (2018). Impacts of snow darkening by deposition of light absorbing aerosols on hydroclimate of Eurasia during boreal spring and summer, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., DOI:10.1029/2018JD028557.

Xue, Yongkang & Boone, Aaron & Yao, Tandong. (2018).Remote Effects of High Elevation Land Surface Temperature on S2S Precipitation Prediction: First Workshop on LS4P and TPEMIP. GEWEX Workshop Reports.

Xue Y., I. Diallo, W. Li, J. D. Neelin, P. C. Chu, R. Vasic, W. Guo, Q. Li, D. A. Robinson, Y. Zhu, C. Fu, and C. M. Oaida (2018). Spring land surface and subsurface temperature anomalies and subsequent downstream late spring-summer droughts/floods in North America and East Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 5001-5019.

Broxton, P. D., Zeng X., and Dawson, N. (2017). The Impact of a Low Bias in Snow Water Equivalent Initialization on CFS Seasonal Forecasts, Journal of Climate, 30, 8657-8671

Gao, Lu & Bernhardt, Matthias & Karsten, Schulz & Chen, Xingwei. (2016). Elevation correction of ERA‐Interim temperature data in the Tibetan Plateau. International Journal of Climatology. 10.1002/joc.4935.

Xue, Y. C. M. Oaida, I. Diallo, J D. Neelin, S. Li, F. De Sales, Y. Gu, D. Robinson, R. Vasic and L. Yi, 2016: Spring land temperature anomalies in northwestern US and the summer drought over Southern Plains and adjacent areas, Environ. Res. Lett. 11 (2016) 044018, http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044018